Saturday, May 31, 2008

Top 100: 1-20

Once again, I drastically lowered the weight towards relief pitching (I define a reliever as a guy with less than 60 in stamina). As I have stated before as well position players tend to be weighted towards guys who play positions that require defense rather than the guys like David Ortiz and Prince Fielder. Yes Threester, I realize that there are about 7-10 guys who are not on the list that probably should be. They are your prototypical 1B/DH guys. I'll include them in the last post as a list of "guys who can hit, but not much else" list. They will definitely contribute at the big league level, its just I haven't found a good "middle" ground between the offensive and defensive ratings yet.

Rank; Name; Position; Team; Change from last year's list.


1. Bruce Fowler, SP, Chicago, --
We have a new overall number one, and it's last year's number one draft pick. Bruce signed a $4 million contract coming out of Millenium High School in Goodyear, AZ. He went 11-1 between rookie league and low a ball. He will give up the occasional home run, but looks like he could be one of the league's best pitchers for years to come.

2. Luke McFeely, 3B, Durham, -1
Last season's number one prospect falls on the list to number two thanks to Bruce, but he still looks like a great ball player.

3. Cliff Morgan, SS, Kansas City, +1
Moving up one spot, Cliff looks to continue his dominance this year and projects to break into the bigs possibly next year if his defense improves. He spent last year at High A, where he won a sliver slugger and an an all-star invitation as he posted a .362/.452/.621 line.

4. Doug Stern, SP, Arizona, --
Another new addition to this year's list, Doug was chosen with the third overall pick last season. As if Arizona needs anymore pitching as a couple of their prospects graduated to the bigs last year. Stern went 10-3 in 16 starts at low a last year.

5. Randy Gordon, SS, Toledo, --
Toledo would have had an amazing left side of their infield if they would have kept number two prospect McFeeley and Gordon, but they felt they had other pressing needs and traded McFeeley to Durham. Gordon was the second pick last season. You'd be hard pressed to find a guy who can hit the ball harder against right handed pitchers than Randy can.

6. Terry Jacquez, SP, Montgomery, +2
Terry definitely benefits from the move out of Santa Fe, even though Montgomery is still a hitters park. Whoever says SWINGINGWOOD doesn't know how to spot good pitchers doesn't know what they are talking about as Jacquez was another find by him. Traded away in season 4, Terry is all but ready for the bigs, though his durability will limit his use during the season.

7. Vic Ramsey, RP, Buffalo, --
Buffalo was probably the luckiest team in the draft when Richmond passed on Ramsey and selected Alex Treadway instead. Treadway isn't even one of the top 100 pitching prospects, while Ramsey is in the top 10 overall.

8. Santiago Martinez, SP, Montgomery, +1
Martinez also looks to benefit from the transition out of Santa Fe to Montgomery. Probably the smartest decision that though he probably didn't know it at the time. Might not be as good as he could be as his pitches might hold him back a little. Looks like he'll start the year off in the bigs.

9. Ralph Karl, RP, Montgomery, - 4
Montgomery's third pitcher on the list, and another SWININGWOOD draftee. Ralph has extraordinary effectiveness against both sides of the plate, though doesn't have a "great" pitch in his arsenal.

10. Ismael Nieves, SS, Buffalo, +4
Ismael is arguably ready for the bigs right now. Depending on how much his glove improves during the season you should be on the lookout for a call up later down the road.

11. Bosco Cochrane, SP, Buffalo, +2
Cochrane won't be setting any IP records, but he will definitely be a perennial all-star during his career. He was used as a closer last year, and was very effective coming out of the pen. There will be debate among the league if that trend continues when he eventually makes it to the bigs.

12. Ed Hamilton, SS, Minnesota, +16
Hamilton is an anomaly of my rankings. His defense is excellent, but his offense is suspect, even though he possesses great contact and power attributes. Ed is ready for the major leagues right now.

13. Dennis Acquilino, SS, Buffalo, +4
Another Buffalo shortstop shows up in the top 20 of this years rankings. Dennis is a little bit better defensively than Ismael, while Ismael is a little bit better offensively

14.Kevin Lennon, SP, Charleston, +1
Lennon has been less than spectacular during his pro career if you base your decision off of W-L records. He is a combined 10-15 over two full seasons, but that only tells half the story. His whip is 1.27 in over 230IP, which is pretty darn good. His K/BB ratio is also over 2.4. This leads me to believe he just has been playing on a team that has trouble putting up runs. Most likely will be around the minors for at least another season and a half.

15. Matthew Nitkowski, SP, New Orleans, +1
Nitkowski is one of those marginal types that seem to dominate the rankings. They don't really have the stamina to start, but their durability is low enough that they wouldn't be really effective out of the pen, but their other ratings are really good. You want to get them as many innings as possible, but are unsure which route to take. Matthew has averaged only 3 2/3 innings a start during his two seasons, but has managed to strike out almost a batter per inning. He's really in that "gray area"

16. Gary Fletcher, RF, New Orleans, -6
Fletcher falls a few spots in this years list, but its no fault of his own. He still projects to have an absolute cannon in right, and will hold many runners in their places once they find this out. Could start for any team this year.

17. Otis Schneider, SS, Milwaukee, --
Schneider is another newcomer to the list this year and projects to be the best overall defender from the list. Offensively won't be overpowering, but looks like he'll draw a ton of walks.

18. Aaron Lemon, SP, Durham, 0
Aaron surprisingly has not moved a single spot this year. He improved a ton over the past year as he is up 11pts overall, and appears to be a year from making his ML debut if he can keep that pace up.

19. Oswaldo Flores, Dover, SP, 1
Oswaldo has been a starter all his life, but it appears that Dover's new ownership wants him in the pen closing games out. He has been nagged by some minor injuries, but it doesn't appear to have sidetracked his progression to much.

20. Jim James, SS, Milwaukee, --
James is the second Milwaukee shortstop on the list. He is offensively better than Schneider, but a little bit worse on defense. Most likely will make the transition to third base, much like Ryan Braun did coming out of college, but hopefully with better success.


Where are they now(Last Year's Top 20):
2. Arthur Daniels, Boston - Majors
3. Gus Carpenter - Arizona - Majors
6. Trent Gragg - Minnesota - Majors
7. Esteban Johnson - Arizona - Majors
11. Louie Cho - Louisville - Majors
12. Ray Slocumb - Arizona - Majors

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